

Summary AIER’s Leading Indicators Index posted a solid gain in January, rising to 63 following three consecutive months at the neutral 50 mark. The gain was the largest one-month increase since September 2020, leaving the index at its highest level since July 2021....
AIER Leading Indicators Index shows improvement

Consumer sentiment fell sharply in early February
The preliminary February results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment fell sharply in early February, hitting the lowest level since October 2011 (see top of first chart). The composite consumer sentiment decreased to...
Consumer sentiment fell sharply in early February

$30 trillion with neither a whimper or bang
On Tuesday, February 1, 2022, the United States national debt surpassed $30tr for the first time. It’s the latest in a series of recent fiscal and monetary benchmarks received with increasing blitheness. I counted only a handful of headlines reporting on it. Two of...
$30 trillion with neither a whimper or bang

The surprising ingredients of David Swensen’s secret sauce
The passing last year of investment great David Swensen was very sad news. We are fortunate that he was a generous sharer of his insight. But we need to be careful to focus on the right lessons from his success. Swensen achieved excellent investment outcomes over his...
The surprising ingredients of David Swensen’s secret sauce

Private payrolls show surprising strength in January, adding 444,000 jobs
US nonfarm payrolls added 467,000 jobs in January, easily beating expectations. The January data reflects annual benchmark revisions, as well as updates to seasonal adjustments. The revised data now shows more robust payroll growth over the past 13 months, with an...
Private payrolls show surprising strength in January, adding 444,000 jobs