The Euro has been a disaster since its birth in 1999. Its monetary pathologies led to youth unemployment rates of 50 – 60% in Greece, Spain and the Italian Mezzogiorno. It gave a trillion-dollar windfall to German exporters at the expense of the hapless Club Med and amplified Berlin’s diktat over the lands once occupied […]
Whatever the popular story of the time, the reason that cycles come to an end is that central banks raise interest rates to suppress inflation. Initially, business and consumer confidence prevents interest rates from having an immediate effect. Later, leverage and over-expansion on two or three sectors of the economy usually cause a bigger decline […]
In recent years, a growing number of prominent economists, including Michael Woodford, Christina Romer and Larry Summers, have switched their allegiance from inflation targeting to targeting nominal GDP, the non-inflation-adjusted sum of all spending in the economy. One of the best ways to understand the growing popularity of NGDP targeting, is to re-examine what went […]
The strategic course that needs to be taken. […]
Ian Stewart, Chief Economist at Deloitte, considers the statistics. […]
Our Macro commentator on the outlook for sterling. […]
Does recent movement in the 30 year gilt imply a knock-on effect in property? […]
Why the UK is heading for a period of stagflation. […]
Matein Khalid asks: is the Wall Street sell off just an ephemeral market or something more ominous, a trend change, requiem for the bull market? Plus his latest thoughts on the Karachi stock index and the overvaluation of Credit Suisse shares. […]
Chaos in Washington and dollar weakness, combined with the Macron win, has had a major impact on markets. For a sterling investor, the global real estate sector is flat YTD, but the Americas is down 6% compared to Europe up over 8% including the UK up c. 7%. But the UK sector performance has been credible in spite of […]
