predictions

The Brexit that could bypass us all The economy will roll on

7th September 2018 by Adrian Pepper

The most common question I am asked as a political consultant is “How is all this going to play out?” Any answer can of course be dismissed as pure conjecture and no prediction will turn out to be 100 per cent correct. But by talking to people in the Government, in Number Ten, in Westminster […]

It’s time to put Paul the Octopus on the barbecue Just because an unlikely event happens, that doesn't make a forecast "wrong"

12th July 2018 by Matt Singh

Bashing forecasts and forecasting seems to be in vogue lately. Not only have recent years seen a number of political upsets, but the current World Cup has seen similarly notable surprises (and not just England winning a penalty shootout). But is the criticism of forecasting fair? Should we junk them and bring back Paul the […]