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Blain’s Morning Porridge

“Once I built a tower, now its done, Brother, can you spare a dime?” In the headlines this morning Another fascinating weekend… It’s a holiday in the US, and much of UK is off for mid-term. I’m still trying to digest the importance of last week’s news about Amazon pulling out of its New York […]

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The Euro could well rise to 1.23 by end 2019!

The Euro has been a disaster since its birth in 1999. Its monetary pathologies led to youth unemployment rates of 50 – 60% in Greece, Spain and the Italian Mezzogiorno. It gave a trillion-dollar windfall to German exporters at the expense of the hapless Club Med and amplified Berlin’s diktat over the lands once occupied […]

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Currencies – King Dollar devastates emerging markets currencies The British pound fell below 1.30 last week as investors were horrified by another Tory revolt

Gold has fallen to 1231 an ounce. The Chinese yuan has depreciated to 6.76 and triggered a Black Death in emerging market currencies. Copper has fallen 18% in the past month. Emerging market equities/debt markets are in free fall. The US Treasury debt yield curve has flattened alarmingly since the beginning of 2018. The financial […]

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GCC Focus – Saudi Arabian equities are global winners in 2018! Saudi Arabian equities have become the world’s second best performing stock market in 2018

I had written an article titled “six reasons to be bullish Saudi equities in 2018, published in the KT on January 28. Yet I was surprised to see Saudi Arabian equities become the world’s second best performing stock market in 2018 after Egypt. The Saudi equity index fund (KSA) I recommended in my column is […]

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Macro Ideas – Is Iraq the world’s next hot frontier stock market? Money alone will not solve Iraq’s problems of systemic corruption

A dismal legacy of civil war, sanctions, insurgency, foreign invasion and terrorism has had a catastrophic impact on the Iraqi economy. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi told the assembled global elite at Davos 2018 that Iraq needed $100 billion in postwar construction. Yet money alone will not solve Iraq’s problems of systemic corruption, a society divided […]

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Market View – The case for profit taking in Indian equities Indian equities still face downside risks even though Dalal Street suffered its first real correction since March

The Sensex and Nifty seem near a cyclical peak though the declines in Indian midcap/smallcap shares have been draconian. There is no doubt in my mind that, after a stellar 2017, investors sentiment in the Indian equities market is at an inflection point in April 2018: The old adage “don’t fight the Fed”, so frequently […]

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Wall Street – The rising LIBOR and the global financial markets All that's affected by the rise in LIBOR

Pocket watch on pile of dollars

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that his strategy on interest rate hikes will be guided by the real time performance of the US economy, not the estoric econometric models of the central bank’s staff monetary economists. Unlike Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Janet Yellen, Powell is not an economist but a former […]

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Macro Ideas – The bullish case for British equities British equities exhibit metrics of investor pessimism

Tug of war with hands pulling rope in opposite directions

Brexit, sterling’s fall from grace, the collapse of the London housing bubble and the fractious politics of Theresa May’s Tory government in Westminster has made UK equities a pariah for global asset allocators. British equities exhibit metrics of investor pessimism last seen just after the epic failures of RBS, Lloyds HBOS and, yes, Barclays PLC […]

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