

The S&P 500 has dropped considerably since the advent of COVID-19 although well off the lows. Although the economy is slowly starting to open up, it seems inevitable that we will have at least a short-term recession. This differs from past...
How Far Could Commercial Real Estate Values Drop?

Commercial Real Estate Returns Drop to Financial Crisis Level
The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) tracks the performance of over a half trillion dollars of commercial real estate in the US. Because the properties are marked to market every quarter for financial reporting, NCREIF can...
Commercial Real Estate Returns Drop to Financial Crisis Level

The Race for the Next Seattle
(Article originally published Summer 2018) Why agility is key for investors in dealing with new uncertainties Seattle is the only market I’ve ever seen advance from secondary to primary market status. There are a few other secondary cities that are nipping at its...
The Race for the Next Seattle

A Retrospective on the Avian Flu Scare of 2005
On November 1, 2005, President George W. Bush held a press conference in which he called for draconian measures and $7.1 billion in spending to stop the spread of H5N1 Avian flu, which was then starting to cause some panic. “The president said that the threat of...
A Retrospective on the Avian Flu Scare of 2005

The Anatomy of the Crash of 2020
After decades of predictions, warnings, wagers, prophecies, and what must be many trillions of dollars expended upon short sales, long puts and written calls, hedges and directional bets of every sort: the long-awaited “big Kahuna” – a crash in equities markets – came...
The Anatomy of the Crash of 2020