

Whether we consider the dollar’s level against a trade-weighted basket of other currencies or against a basket of commodities, its strength is arguably ‘the market story’ of 2022. As to why we have seen it move upwards in practically all dimensions, there...
What lies ahead for the US dollar?

The risk of real estate distress has risen…
Originally published November 2022. …but REITs look well positioned. The cost of debt for real estate increased steeply in 2022, as credit conditions tightened, loan margins widened and recession fears started to bite. Rising rates have already caused greater...
The risk of real estate distress has risen…

The future for oil prices
My head is full of grizzly mania, the Russian bear is trapped in Ukraine’s military bear trap and the black gold bears are laughing all the way to the bank as Brent tanks to $76 and West Texas settled at $71. Does this week define the new geopolitics of black...
The future for oil prices

Russia’s poor military performance will worsen this winter
With Russian troops digging trenches to prepare for an expected winter standoff, it would be easy to conclude that fighting will slow in Ukraine until after the ground thaws in the spring. But evidence from the Ukrainian battlefields point to a different trajectory....
Russia’s poor military performance will worsen this winter

Why density matters
Originally published October 2022. Productivity, sustainability and resilience. This summer I left central London and lived for a month in suburban Austin, Texas. It was an adjustment. In London, I was used to having a coffee shop close, a convenience...
Why density matters