

The consensus is that we are in a K-shaped recovery – that means winners and losers. We are not all in this together. The unique shape of the covid-19 crisis and accompanying recession has meant some industries have thrived whilst others have dived. In caricature,...
The K is not OK

The missed deal of the year award goes to … covid-19 (part II)
Last week we looked at historical lessons derived from prior pandemics. Today we will expand into determining the likely economic fallout of covid-19, consider the capital market feedback and map the way forward. How do we value the covid-19 impact? My review of...
The missed deal of the year award goes to … covid-19 (part II)

Change or die?
The property market was allowed to continue operating during the second lockdown, which was good news for the 500,000 or so current transactions that are proceeding (albeit slowly). However, strict protocols on viewings and valuation appointments continue and many...
Change or die?

No constituency for sound money
Many people concerned about the possibility of inflation caused by the debasement of currencies, such as myself, were strongly influenced by the 2009 book by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time is Different, which catalogues the causes and effects of past...
No constituency for sound money

The prospects for global trade under the new US administration
During the last four years, the prospects for freer world trade have been in retreat. Now, with a new broom about to sweep into the White House, there is renewed hope for progress both in bilateral and multilateral trade negotiations. Financial markets have been...
The prospects for global trade under the new US administration