The global monetary and fiscal stimulus implemented since the coronavirus erupted has been sizable, and policy-makers have acted with unprecedented speed. While it is recognised that this stimulus was necessary, the resulting increases in government debt and central bank liquidity have given rise to concerns that an upsurge in global inflation may be around the […]
The world has been turned upside down by this pandemic, along with the prospects of many companies. Perhaps some of your own holdings have soared to unexpected highs, or collapsed to unexpected lows. Several of my holdings certainly have. However, don’t pat yourself on the back or don a dunce cap too soon. In most […]
On 12 October 1864, Chief Justice Roger Taney, author of the Dred Scott decision, passed away. Abraham Lincoln (finally!) had the opportunity to replace that man. There was never a doubt that Lincoln would nominate a successor. On the other hand, there was no purpose in immediately naming a successor. The Senate was in recess […]
Ordinary valuation methods prove inaccurate when the measures they’re based on are in such a state of flux – it’s time to turn to a different methodology. In ordinary circumstances (anyone remember those halcyon days of steady state equilibrium?) the task of valuing a REIT was relatively straightforward. All that was required was a forecast […]
Considering that the present crisis is likely to burst inflated bubbles, it’s especially relevant to look at overvalued assets now. The first chart below compares the current housing market in various countries around the world. Using data from the OECD Economic Outlook, I estimated how much housing is overvalued in terms of house prices relative […]
The ‘next normal’ – the same as the last normal but has just arrived more quickly than expected. Like so many events, it’s a case of expediting existing trends not starting new ones. Retailers that have been living off low interest rate loans and haven’t changed their business models post the Amazon Age are now […]
I visited South Africa for the first time in September of 2006, thanks to Grietjie Verhoef and a great number of hosts around the country, for nearly two-and-a-half weeks. In that time I watched some South African TV in English, and when English subtitles were provided I could follow the Afrikaans soap operas, too, noting […]
‘New’ economy stocks have surged over the past five years, but unfashionable value may be about to have its moment in the sun. US internet shares have been roaring ahead, particularly in recent months. The coronavirus crisis has accelerated the shift towards online retail and smart communications, and these are the most obvious winners. It […]
Retailing is going through a structural change and asset values are tumbling as the effect of falling rents and a lack of investment appetite feeds through to the market value of the properties. The impact of the covid restrictions has been to accelerate these changes but also to disguise the positives that the new retailing […]
UK: Total value of exports to EU 27 countries in February 2020: £13,869bn As percentage of total overseas exports: 51% Percentage change since previous year: -7% Percentage change in retail sales in April 2020 compared with last year: -23% Latest percentage change for August compared with last year: 3% Percentage change in value compared with […]
