Power posturing or trouble on the home front for Putin?

There is a pressing need to understand what’s behind Moscow’s growing threat to use military force against Ukraine. The real motivation for Russia’s aggression will largely determine the West’s room for manoeuvre. Despite amassing 100,000 troops on its western border with Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly denied that it plans to invade its neighbour. But the country has also declared its readiness to respond to any provocation. 

If the Russian government’s actions are driven by the logic of regime survival, no amount of Western concessions will prevent Russia from constantly undermining Ukraine’s statehood. We believe there are two dominant perspectives that can explain Russia’s recent escalation of tensions with Ukraine. One is that Russia’s policy is driven by power and security considerations, and the other is that challenges at home push Moscow towards a more aggressive policy. Both have practical repercussions for the region.

Power politics

The first scenario interprets Moscow’s moves in terms of power politics. Russia aims to prevent further security and defence cooperation between Ukraine and the West, including any future Nato enlargement.

While Ukraine is not a member of Nato, it has been tightening its relationship with the organisation, with a long-held objective of becoming a full member. Russia also wants to ensure Kiev does not attempt to regain control over the two separatist entities – Luhansk and Donetsk – in south-eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed rebels have been fighting Ukrainian regular forces since 2014. 

Pundits disagree whether Russia’s policy towards Ukraine has been driven by defensive motives or by offensive aims, such as Moscow’s ambitions to increase its power and influence. For those in the defensive camp, Russia/the West/Ukraine relations represent what in international relations parlance is called a ‘security dilemma‘. This means that defensive activities of one side are interpreted as offensive – and thus potentially threatening – by the other. The rush by central European states towards Nato in the 1990s – and Ukraine’s consistent promotion of closer ties with the alliance – are motivated by the quest for security.