Do conventional bonds still deserve a place in portfolios?
Total return on 10-year US Treasuries, adjusted for US CPI inflation %
What was the real return on the US 10-year bond over the past two years? Flat? Down a little?
Wrong – down a lot. The bedrock of the balanced portfolio has delivered a real return of -20% over the past two years (Bloomberg).
That’s the worst inflation-adjusted performance since 1981 (Bloomberg and Ruffer calculations).