…and from place to place.

Part one of a three-part mini-series written by economist Savvas Savouri.

If I were seeking an analogy for how best to forecast what awaits the UK economy, it would be meteorological. To wit, a weather forecast is pointless if it fails to deliver geographic detail. Yes, there are moments ahead when all are set to bask in sun, be snow covered or suffer showers. These shared moments are, however, rare.

It is in drawing inspiration from weather forecasts that this series presents a taste of our economic projections for the UK’s regions out to 2030. It does so in the form of colour-coded heat maps, which illustrate where, over coming years, the UK’s economic hottest and coldest spots will be. The singular ‘Regional growth future-ometer’ has been created by factoring in 31 wide-ranging measures. These capture regional demographics, housing, labour markets and other spatially distinct dimensions that determine economic growth. We are convinced these measures taken collectively light up clear flare-paths for where the economy is heading in aggregate, and all the more intriguingly, how this progress will be spread across the country.

To repeat then, the 31 dimensions mapping regional DNA are blended together to create the ‘Regional growth future-ometer’. Across this map, shades of red indicate comparatively strong economic strength, while hues of blue suggest relative trailing fortunes. It has come about without prejudice or, in empirical speak, without any conscious attempt at data mining. Indeed, the colour conclusion presented has gone through rigorous sensitivity analysis, during which process we saw a remarkable consistency in ‘final complexion’. To be clear, the colour coding is relative. Blue does not imply economic decline, merely the expectation of more moderate growth than where shades are more blush.