The change of Government has rightly produced a change of policy. We are now expecting a mini-Budget next week that will reverse the Treasury’s long-standing insistence on balancing the books and cut taxes by at least £30bn.
The Government is going for growth in the belief that boosting supply is the way to way to end the stagnation of recent years, tackle the cost-of-living crisis and ultimately generate the tax flows needed to protect public services.
Liz Truss’s policy agenda is bold, invigorating and right. But she and her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, can expect howls of criticism from establishment economists and their cheerleaders at The Financial Times when he stands up in the Commons and hits the accelerator pedal. Their argument is that a ‘sterling and bond market crisis’ is being provoked by the higher borrowing in prospect from the energy price freeze, reversing the National Insurance rises and scrapping the planned increase in Corporation Tax.
There is no such ‘crisis’, since neither sterling nor bond interest rates are objectives of policy. We have not had a fixed exchange rate since our foolishly mistaken episode inside the European Exchange Rate Mechanism came to its inevitable end in 1992. As for the long-term interest rates we have been paying on government bonds, they are still remarkably low in real terms, reflecting real rates close to zero in world markets. In fact our 10-year real rates on index-linked bonds are still negative.
Both sterling and real interest rates are market prices that reflect policies set to maximise the welfare of UK citizens. These are therefore aiming to maximise growth, subject first to the inflation target to which monetary policy is committed and second to the only valid constraint on the Government budget, which is the long-term one of solvency. In practical terms, that means our debt/GDP ratio should be tending downwards to a sustainable level over the long term.