Truss is right to tear up the Treasury rule book – The Property Chronicle
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Truss is right to tear up the Treasury rule book

The Economist

The change of Government has rightly produced a change of policy. We are now expecting a mini-Budget next week that will reverse the Treasury’s long-standing insistence on balancing the books and cut taxes by at least £30bn.

The Government is going for growth in the belief that boosting supply is the way to way to end the stagnation of recent years, tackle the cost-of-living crisis and ultimately generate the tax flows needed to protect public services.

Liz Truss’s policy agenda is bold, invigorating and right. But she and her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, can expect howls of criticism from establishment economists and their cheerleaders at The Financial Times when he stands up in the Commons and hits the accelerator pedal. Their argument is that a ‘sterling and bond market crisis’ is being provoked by the higher borrowing in prospect from the energy price freeze, reversing the National Insurance rises and scrapping the planned increase in Corporation Tax.

“As for the long-term interest rates we have been paying on government bonds, they are still remarkably low in real terms, reflecting real rates close to zero in world markets”

There is no such ‘crisis’, since neither sterling nor bond interest rates are objectives of policy. We have not had a fixed exchange rate since our foolishly mistaken episode inside the European Exchange Rate Mechanism came to its inevitable end in 1992. As for the long-term interest rates we have been paying on government bonds, they are still remarkably low in real terms, reflecting real rates close to zero in world markets. In fact our 10-year real rates on index-linked bonds are still negative.

Both sterling and real interest rates are market prices that reflect policies set to maximise the welfare of UK citizens. These are therefore aiming to maximise growth, subject first to the inflation target to which monetary policy is committed and second to the only valid constraint on the Government budget, which is the long-term one of solvency. In practical terms, that means our debt/GDP ratio should be tending downwards to a sustainable level over the long term.






The Economist

About Patrick Minford

Patrick Minford is a macroeconomist with an interest in trade modelling and macroeconomic policy. He holds the chair of Applied Economics at Cardiff University where he directs the Julian Hodge Institute of Applied Macroeconomics, which publishes forecasts and analysis of the UK and world economy. Before academic life he was an economic adviser to Her Majesty's Treasury's External Division and editor of the National Institute Review. From 1976 to 1997, he was the Edward Gonner Professor of Applied Economics at Liverpool University where he founded and directed the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics; this built the ‘Liverpool Model’ of the UK, which was influential in forecasting and policy analysis during the 1980s. He was a member of Monopolies and Mergers Commission 1990-96; and one of the H M Treasury's Panel of Forecasters ('6 Wise Men') January 1993-December 1996. He was honoured with a CBE for services to economics in 1996. His economic interests include monetary, trade, labour market and macro economics and modelling. Recent books include: Should Britain leave the EU? An economic analysis of a troubled relationship, (with S. Gupta, V. Mahambare, V Le and Y Xu) Edward Elgar, second edition, (December 2015); and (with David Meeanagh) 'After Brexit, what next? Trade, regulation and economic growth.' Edward Elgar, December 2020.

Articles by Patrick Minford

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