Intelligence agencies are secretive organisations that generate secret products. Their reports come adorned with reminders to maintain discretion: “Top Secret” this, “Sensitive Compartmented Information” that. Those following former US president Donald Trump’s curious filing practices in Mar-a-Lago will appreciate the significance governments attach to protecting their classified materials and the damage revelations can do.
Yet, over the past eight months, the US, British and Ukrainian governments and Nato partners have been regularly briefing global audiences on their intelligence concerning Russia and its war against Ukraine.
Our study, in the journal Survival, examines this seemingly paradoxical behaviour, asking questions about how and why governments communicate intelligence – and with what risks.
I’ll show you mine
Before and during the war in Ukraine, intelligence disclosures have been intended to bolster Ukrainian and European resilience against Russia’s invasion, to undermine Russia’s attempts to justify their actions and expose their wartime atrocities and failings. These disclosures have also sought to justify Nato and EU member economic sanctions and security assistance to Ukraine and to enhance cohesion with more reluctant allies to isolate Russia diplomatically and economically.
The methods of and motives for these disclosures are not unprecedented. In the past, states have communicated intelligence for the same underlying reasons: to justify actions or policies and to persuade partners or adversaries to their cause and build their resilience. It’s also used for incriminating adversaries.
Yet the scale, frequency and initially preemptive nature of intelligence disclosures concerning Russia and Ukraine are new. Given the acute pressure Ukraine is under, Kyiv is disclosing especially granular intelligence on alleged Russian operations to kill Ukrainian prisoners of war and Russian security service war planning.
