With Russian troops digging trenches to prepare for an expected winter standoff, it would be easy to conclude that fighting will slow in Ukraine until after the ground thaws in the spring.
But evidence from the Ukrainian battlefields point to a different trajectory.
As a career US special forces officer who conducted field research on the 2008 and 2014 wars in Georgia and Ukraine, it is my view that this war has demonstrated that only one side, the Ukrainians, can execute effective combat manoeuvres. I believe that the Ukrainians will attempt to launch a large-scale counteroffensive in late winter when the ground is still frozen.
Winter’s impact on war
Historically, the pace of fighting does slow in the winter.
Weapons and other equipment can freeze up in extreme cold, and it’s much more difficult to shoot a weapon while wearing thick gloves.
Shorter days are a factor. Despite technological advances, most of the fighting during this war has occurred during the day.
But this winter may be different for the Ukrainian military.
First, Ukrainian winters are not nearly as cold and snowy as many believe.
Donetsk, for example, has an average temperature of nearly 25°F (-4C) in January and February.
Its snowiest month, January, averages only 4.9 inches of snow, or .12 meters. Both January and February average just as many rainy days as snowy days – roughly two days of each.
A brief history of Russian attack
Since the invasion began in February 2022, Russia made most of its gains in the first month of the war when it seized Kherson, surrounded Mariupol, and was on the doorsteps of Kyiv and Kharkiv.
But Russia soon gave up on Kyiv and withdrew all its forces from the north.
Failing to achieve quick victory, Russia instead settled on making incremental gains in the east and south. Over the next five months, Russia captured Mariupol, but little else of tactical or strategic value.
During this time, Ukraine built up its combat power with new weaponry from the West and planned a large counteroffensive, which it initiated on 28 August 2022.
