The UK did NOT enter recession in 2022
Last week’s news will come as a surprise to many (and a great disappointment to some) as the Bank of England’s forecasts from as recently as November suggested we should now be seven months into a two-year long recession. These predictions are now exposed for what they always were – a harmful nonsense. Bailey was guilty of extrapolating long into the future momentary aberrant market pricing for interest rates and energy, as well as underestimating the strength of the UK jobs market. Those who saw through this at the time have since been rewarded handsomely in UK equity markets. As we argued back in August, 2022 will go down in history as the Bank’s forecasting worst.
“Our only question is how on earth the Bailey bunch will explain away their woeful misjudgements?”
