The property media grows in reach and influence as time ticks by. Headlines would have you believe that crashes are coming but at the same time housing is more and more unaffordable. In reality with recent wage inflation at 8.2% and CPI at least on its way down under 7% – the peak has happened and working people are playing catchup on the cost of living crisis in real terms. In the meantime the post-Truss correction of around 5% on pricing – and a significant drop in volume, but covid-inspired volume was well above the trend of the past decade, has made a difference that looks more like 15% when adjusted for inflation or wage inflation.

No-one wants to catch the falling knife – but sitting on the sidelines in this environment could seriously damage your wealth. There are so many willing vendors out there at the moment – the only job is to parse the truly motivated from those who are still trying to pretend it is June 2022.

The cost of leverage is a problem if you are not a cash buyer – that cannot be ignored. Deferred considerations are a powerful way around that if you can construct the deal appropriately. Vendor finance is in the ascendancy. I expect prices to stabilise in the shorter term – within 12 months – and the bears to move on, still scratching their head as to why the crash they think is so obvious is still not happening.

Miss this window to acquire at your peril. Commercial property has always been sensitive to interest rates and this hike is historically unprecedented in logarithmic terms. You do need to demand a significant premium on the risk-free rate – that is true – and that rate has moved from basically zero to over 5% in short order. However, a sticky inflation rate will keep rents nicely buoyant and if you can buy 30-40% cheaper than 12-15 months ago, this has to be considered.