If asked to separate forecasting consistency from obstinacy, my reply is categorical. Consistency is sticking to an economic prediction based on fundamentals; an outlook one must persist with, until & unless something occurs to markedly alter matters. By stark contrast, obstinance is persisting with a forecast that was never properly rationalised, or, if it had been, found itself overtaken by events undermining the assertion as first presented.
With the above in mind, the onset of COVID meant that what was “confidently” anticipated in late ‘19 for the year ahead had to be entirely reassessed. Exiting lockdowns & entering ‘22, as we know, the invasion of Ukraine forced all forecasters into another wholesale detour. Revisions for all the monetary & real variables economists endowed with extensive education & experience, are supposed to best anticipate.
