The Liberal politician Joseph Chamberlain is recorded in 1886 as having said: “In politics, there is no use in looking beyond the next fortnight.” Fast forward to 1964 and this myopic political horizon was halved by Labour’s Harold Wilson: “A week is a long time in politics”. Into the 21st century and we see political careers turning in mere hours. Let us also be reminded of this from the Tory-turned Ulster Unionist Enoch Powell, “All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and human affairs.” One can interpret ‘midstream at a happy juncture’ rather morbidly. As for ‘human affairs’, this sashays perfectly to the very soon to be ex-premier.

Now political change/shock only interests me if I expect it to induce a meaningful change/shock in economic trajectory. So the question is, ‘Is the end of the Johnson era the beginning of an entirely new one for the UK economy?’ The answer will, of course, depend on one’s starting point and expectation of policy inflections. Depend, that is, on one’s judgement of the direction the UK economy was heading in advance (sic) of this, latest, political pantomime and judgement of what the new Chancellor will do fiscally. Before I turn to my prognosis, let me summarise received ‘wisdom’.