Blain’s Morning Porridge – The Property Chronicle
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Blain’s Morning Porridge

The Macro View

“France has no friends, only interests…”

In the headlines this morning.

When the Fed Chairman has to say he’s “insulated from short-term political pressures”, then you know his ears are bleeding from a full up-to 11 Trump rant. Apparently, Trump’s stooges have been sounding out other Fed governors for the job. Powell went onto say he remains sort-of dovish, which suggests he is paying attention. What do you do when you lose confidence in central banks? 

The market isn’t convinced – hence y’day’s sell off. But it was still probably a smart thing for Powell to say – come Friday the market is likely to be very disappointed by a very lacklustre G20 meeting. From the mumbleswerve it sounds the best can be hoped for is that Xi and Trump meet and agree wording about agreeing to agree to resume discussions re reaching agreement on trade. Which means they basically agree nothing. At which stage the Fed comes in more dovish gibberish about easing due to worsening global financial outlook to stem a major sell off, and we get a 25 cent cut in July. Sorted.

If only it was always so easy…

I’ve been thinking about Europe the last few days… and I am worried… yes, I know we are supposed to be trying to forget about our confusing love for Europe, (it’s us, it’s not you) and trying to pretend we are good Globalists… but I can’t help but think we are approaching something of a significant moment in terms of how thing are across Le Manche. Maybe it’s time for a rethink? (I can just imagine my mate Anthony spluttering in fury into his tea as he reads this).






The Macro View

About Bill Blain

Bill Blain

Bill Blain is Strategist for Shard Capital, a leading investment firm. Bill is a well known broadcaster and commentator, with over 30-years experience working for leading investment banks and brokerages at senior levels. He's been closely involved in the growth and development of the global fixed income markets, and pioneered complex financial products including capital, asset-backed securities and private placements. Increasingly, he's involved in the Real and Alternative Assets sector seeking to explain their complexity, how to generate decorrelated returns, and create liquidity in non-listed assets. Bill is a passionate sailor, talentless painter, plays guitar badly, is learning the bagpipes, and built a train-set in his attic.

Articles by Bill Blain

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