Frontier notes: God is in the detail – The Property Chronicle
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Frontier notes: God is in the detail

The Analyst

The IMF released a sobering Regional Economic Outlook (REO) for Sub-Saharan Africa last month. In 2020, the regional economy shrank by 1.9% and this year the IMF forecasts only 3.4% year-on-year growth for Sub-Saharan Africa compared to 5.8% for the world at large. As a result of this ‘great disruption’, the REO projects an additional US$425b external financing gap between 2021 and 2025, and calls on the international community to take note. The IMF argues, convincingly, that the challenges posed by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic cannot be ignored, particularly while the international distribution of vaccines remains such an uneven affair. 

With that being said, it is equally important that we keep sight of the heterogeneity of economic prospects across African countries and time horizons, detailed in the same IMF analysis. South Africa together with Africa’s most resource dependent countries, particularly the oil exporters, are the ones where economic headwinds are expected to be most acute. However, more diversified economies like Kenya’s are on a different footing even now. Not plain sailing, but considerably better. 

The region as a whole is set to gather pace over the medium term. For example, in 2021, only eight African countries are forecast to grow more quickly than the global average. But in 2022, that number increases to 27 and by 2023, it is 39 of the 46 Sub-Saharan African countries. Threaded through the anticipated recovery are international and local factors, such as stimulus in the developed countries, the resuscitation of global consumption and commodity prices, as well as resilience and the extension of pre-pandemic dynamics at home. 






The Analyst

About Nana Adu Ampofo

Nana Adu Ampofo

Joint Managing Partner and Co-Founder of Songhai Advisory, Nana is an experienced and well-networked British and Ghanaian business leader dedicated to facilitating the growth and development of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this role, Nana has led the Songhai team in delivering on business and political risk projects for organisations of international repute, including various private equity and hedge fund groups, the Overseas Development Institute, the British Council, UK Trade and Invest and global executive search firm, Russell Reynolds. Before launching Songhai Advisory with Kissy Agyeman-Togobo, Nana worked with the international market intelligence firm IHS as an economic and political risk specialist, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the UK’s Department of Trade and Industry. Nana may be contacted on nana.ampofo@songhaiadvisory.com

Articles by Nana Adu Ampofo

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