The new year is a time for both reflection and anticipation. It seems to me it is one of the most important of years to do both thoroughly.

2023 is described by many of my friends and business associates as one of the hardest of their lives. Even supposedly after COVID (although of course we are not really “after COVID,” at the time of writing, one in 24 of us is likely to have the wretched virus, and sadly it will claim many UK lives again in 2024) 2023 has been an “annus horribilis” for many of us, so it was good to have made a positive investment return overall in the year. We will all hope for better things in 2024 though.

Hope springs eternal, but the prospects for an improved investment environment in 2024 are worryingly faint.

The last 25 years have been characterized as the period of great moderation, de-globalization and collaboration. Companies have exported their manufacturing costs around the world and kept an effective lid on inflation; this being one thing that investment markets universally hate for the destructive power it unleashes on lifestyles and company profits. Exporting manufacturing overseas has improved standards of living in both the giver and recipients’ regions; a virtuous geo-political and macro-economic circle if ever there was one. Sadly, all good things come to an end.