I enjoy reading good journalism, whether it chimes with my political view or not. Sometimes, however, I wonder whether I am reading something which is deliberately misleading – “we send the EU £350 million a week – let’s fund our NHS instead” – or just plain ignorant. Like many others, I also worry about irrational government policy.
The housing crisis in England is characterised by rising house prices, unsatisfactory living conditions and, for many, the unattainable dream of owning a home. Policymakers have talked about a lack of new housing supply as the primary problem, setting a building target of 300,000 new affordable homes a year.
According to research by Shelter and Heriott Watt University, England and the UK respectively are suffering supply shortages of three million and four million homes. What has led to this shortage?
In The Spectator of 1 July 2023, Lionel Shriver (“We Need To Talk About Kevin”) voices the “unspeakable truth about housing,” suggesting that the UK housing shortage is explained by immigration. She looks at the period 1998-2023 and concludes that over this period the UK population grew by 9.5m, having grown by just 2.5m in the previous 25 years: “This demographic surge can only be down to immigration.”
Apart from net migration rather than immigration being the relevant variable, this piece is a distortion, primarily because it ignores ageing.
“In England, there are 640,000 empty homes. More than a quarter of a million of these have been empty for more than six months”
Recently, the Local Government Association suggested that: “Society is ageing and more people require housing that meets their needs as they age. Between 2014 and 2039, over 70% of projected household growth will be made up of households with someone aged 60 or older. The suitability of the housing stock is of critical importance to the health of individuals and impacts on public spending…the proportion of households where the oldest person is 85 or over will grow faster than for any other age group.”
