In February, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the public would have to get used to “living with COVID”, and announced the phasing out of all Covid-related restrictions over the following months. For many people, life since then has begun to return to something resembling normal.

Of course, there are some notable differences to pre-pandemic times, with a huge increase in working from home, and worryingly, many people still suffering from long Covid. But in most respects, you could be forgiven for thinking the pandemic was over.

Yet, over the past few weeks, there have been indications that a new wave of Covid is coming. The latest data from the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) infection survey suggests that around 1.7 million people in the UK had Covid in the week ending June 18 – an increase of over 80% in the previous three weeks. Given the infection survey data is published with a delay of at least one week, these figures almost certainly underestimate the number of cases today.

Covid cases across the UK are rising

One significant change in the last few months has been the end of free mass testing, which stopped in April. While this was inevitable at some stage because of the significant costs involved, it has taken away one of the UK’s key early warning systems.

In the past, an increase in positive tests in the community has been among the first signs that a new wave was coming. Without this, we may not realise the seriousness of a new variant until it’s already well established and people start turning up in hospitals in increasing numbers.