Most people refuse to compromise on territory, but willingness to make peace depends on their war experiences.

The war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending soon. Ukraine is suffering between 600 and 1,000 casualties a day. A fifth of Ukraine is now controlled by Russia and its proxies.

Wars generate well-known “rally-around-the-flag” effects in public opinion – though the nature and sincerity of this is disputed. This leads us to expect that Ukrainian public attitudes towards any perceived compromises – especially territorial concessions – would be hardening.

The latest survey research in Ukraine largely confirms this. But our work adds crucial detail and nuance: those most affected by the war through displacement, and thus most concerned about their immediate security and welfare, are most likely to support an immediate ceasefire. Regional and gender differences are also pronounced.

Not all contested territory is the same

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was not its first invasion. Russian forces seized Crimea in February 2014 and supervised a flawed local referendum that justified Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. In the Donbas, Russian forces helped pro-Russian militias carve out breakaway territories. Prior to the recent invasion the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, recognised these de facto states and their claim to the whole Donbas region.

Russian forces have suffered significant setbacks, but currently occupy large swaths of Ukraine’s south coast and much more of the Donbas than before. Reports suggest plans to hold a referendum there and to potentially consolidate all Russian occupied territory outside Crimea into a single political unit.