The recent return of violence to Lebanon derails hope that the worst of the crises that have plagued the country over the past four years have been left behind.

After a spiral of hyperinflation, debt default and crumbling public services, modest signs of economic recovery from one of the “most severe crisis episodes [seen] globally since the mid-19th century” was predicted for 2024. But this glimmer of optimism has waned as Lebanon risks being dragged into war with Israel.

On January 2, Israel assassinated senior Hamas political officer Saleh al-Arouri in south Beirut after daily rounds of Israeli shelling in southern Lebanon.

The conflict has already resulted in the displacement of more than 75,000 citizens within Lebanon, as well as the deaths of 25 more. The Gaza conflict also prompted the cancellation of “more than half of travel reservations to Lebanon” during the winter holidays. The shock to tourism spending will quickly reverse the limp economic growth that was projected for 2023.

The mood in Lebanon over Christmas was one of deep concern at the prospect of conflict. Any spillover of conflict in the country would cause further internal displacement and stretch state services beyond their breaking point.

The last conflict between Israel and Lebanon – in 2006 – resulted in an estimated US$6.75 billion (£5.3 billion) worth of damages and lost revenue and thousands dead or displaced from their homes.

A repeat of the 2006 Lebanon war would cause a humanitarian disaster and worsen the state of Lebanon’s already beleaguered economy. Notably, a new conflict would probably force thousands of those living in Lebanon to flee the country, adding to an already existent trend in outward migration, a fact not lost on nearby Mediterranean states.