Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions means that a large chunk of the country’s Russian-speaking southeast is returning to the Ukrainian political arena. As the heartland of pro-Russian political parties, this region has always held a distinct place in the country’s politics and even after 2014, sought to offer an alternative to Kyiv’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory. Now, following Russia’s devastating invasion, Ukraine’s southeast is in search of a new identity and political leaders.

Ironically, the regions that have borne the brunt of Russia’s invasion are those that were always most likely to vote for pro-Russian political parties. Just two years ago, Viktor Medvedchuk’s pro-Russian Opposition Platform – For Life bloc won local elections for the Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Kherson regional legislatures.

In recent years, despite growing tensions with Russia and the threat of war, this part of Ukraine had retained generally positive attitudes towards its eastern neighbour: 53% in Ukraine’s east and 45% in the south viewed Russia favourably. Some — though not many — went as far as to support unification with Russia: 22% in the Luhansk region and 11% in the Kherson region.

Russia’s invasion largely put an end to this pro-Russian sentiment: by May 2022, only 4% in Ukraine’s east and 1% in the south still had a positive view of Russia. Support for Ukraine joining NATO, on the other hand, had surged to record highs: 69% in the east and 81% in the south, up from 36% in the east and 48% in the south, recorded by a February poll.

Cultural and historical preferences have also changed dramatically – 68% of respondents from the south and 53% from the east now describe Ukrainian as their native language, though 49% of people in the south and 47% in the east still said they used both Ukrainian and Russian in their everyday life.