An economic outlook.

The global economy is constantly in motion, with various factors influencing its trajectory. From inflation to trade relations and political events: where are we heading and where do we stand?

Economically speaking, we are experiencing a significant slowdown due to a combination of factors such as efforts to curb rising inflation through monetary policy adjustments, adverse financial conditions and disruptions caused by the ongoing geopolitical events. According to the recent World Bank report (https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmentaltalk/global-economic-outlook-five-charts-0), the global economy is projected to have one of the weakest growth rates in the past 30 years this year, surpassed only by the economic downturns caused by the pandemic and the global financial crisis. The International Monetary Fund is projecting weak economic growth.

The case of soft landing

Although governments succeeded in decreasing the inflation rate substantially within their rate hikes, none has clearly achieved a soft landing yet. This difficult position is influenced by commodity exposure and ongoing monetary tightening. However, early hikers appear to be doing better than others. According to Goldman Sachs’ macro-outlook, we could see some important resilience in early hikers’ countries, such as Brazil. However, economists are expecting a mild recession in Europe, mainly influenced by energy bills. Meanwhile, we would notice an ease in global supply-chain pressures, thanks to the reopening of China. Therefore, we could expect to see an improvement in market performance in China.