It’s hard not to be infected by the brisk back-to-school mood that arrives with autumn. The French have a word for this time of new notebooks, sharpened pencils and squeaky school shoes: La Rentrée. That’s exactly what it feels like; a re-entering into work, study and school bringing a spirit of action and fresh initiatives. Politicians return to government, traders to their terminals, re-invigorated workers are back from the summer holidays eager to Get Stuff Done.
All this activity can cause a great deal of movement, and in some cases, even trouble. September to October can be an extremely positive time for financial markets, but these autumnal months have also witnessed some of the biggest crashes and corrections; from the bank crash of 1907, the 1929 Wall Street crash, Black Monday in 1987 (3 months after I started work), to the early foothills of the 2008 global financial crisis. These all hit at this time.
More recently, last year we witnessed a new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, sweep into office in September, determined to usher in a “new era for Britain” by cutting taxes and increasing spending, only to see the pound spiral, bonds plummet, an emergency intervention from the Bank of England and even a telling off from the IMF. Truss and her chancellor had barely unpacked at Number 10 and 11 before the removal trucks were back.