Will housing offer a good hedge against inflation? – The Property Chronicle
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Will housing offer a good hedge against inflation?

The Professor

If certain criteria are met, this writer thinks so.

For those who are persuaded that we are still in the early stages of an inflationary resurgence, rather than the mature phase of an inflation spike, the search continues for protective assets. Residential property – meaning the composite of the dwelling and the land on which it sits – has long enjoyed a preferential status in the public mind, as the cornerstone of a household wealth portfolio. A lazy and complacent post-War belief in the resilience of housing assets during recessions and crises was shaken when UK average house prices fell by 37% in real terms between the second quarter of 1989 and the fourth quarter of 1995 (figure 1). The reputation of residential property was dealt a second blow in 2008 when the sub-prime segment of the US housing finance market exploded, triggering a devastating global financial crisis (GFC). Real UK house prices fell again: a 26% drop from third quarter 2007 to first quarter 2013.

The rollercoaster ride for property owners since the late-1980s helped to propel a diversification of household wealth into financial assets, whose share rose to 61% in 1998. The bursting of the tech-focused millennium equity market bubble sent the pendulum swinging the other way, regenerating the appeal of tangible assets, whose share peaked at 59% in 2007.  Then, the GFC hammered land valuations, setting the scene for another rebalancing towards financial wealth.

“Favourable trends in asset prices have been sustained by central bank policies of financial repression”






The Professor

About Peter Warburton

Peter Warburton

Dr Peter Warburton is director of Economic Perspectives Ltd, an international consultancy, and managing director of Halkin Services Ltd. He was economist to Ruffer LLP, an investment management company, for 15 years and spent a similar length of time in the City as economic advisor and UK economist for the investment bank Robert Fleming and at Lehman Brothers. Previously, he was an economic researcher, forecaster and lecturer at the London Business School and what is now the Bayes Business School. He published Debt and Delusion in 1999. He has been a member of the IEA’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee since its inception in 1997. He is a contributor to the Practical History of Financial Markets course run by Didasko, an education company, at Heriot-Watt University, and teaches occasionally at Cardiff Business School.

Articles by Peter Warburton

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