In all of the sound and fury and sordid events that led to the resignation of the British ambassador to the US, Kim Darroch, there has been little attention paid to the question of what is the function of the UK ambassador in the US, or indeed, that of Ambassadors anywhere. In a past without […]
On his immensely popular HBO show last Friday, the host of Real Time with Bill Maher observed, “Not every movie set in the future has to be a super clean utopia or a smouldering post apocalypse.” “Isn’t there something in between,” he asked. “It’s always either the earth is a giant Apple store or burning man […]
The Physical Market Cycle Analysis of 5 Property Types in 54 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The economic expansion has been solid with 1Q GDP growth at 3.1%, which also drove continued job and wage growth so far in 2019. Trade uncertainty moved investors toward safety and drove the 10-year treasury down to a 2.16% yield […]
Thoughts for the month ahead: Yipes! President Trump shocked the markets on May 10th by doubling down on tariffs against all Chinese imports. Last Friday, he again shocked everyone by threatening 5% tariffs, starting June 10th, on all imports from Mexico if it doesn’t stem the tide of immigrants. That dashed any hope markets might have had for a […]
Thought for the month ahead: While many Americans focus on who the Democrats might nominate for president next year, President Trump and China’s President Xi hope to conclude a trade deal. The markets are counting on it already, and they expect to avoid further tariffs on EU autos and to eventually see the lifting of all tariffs. One […]
Some managers of physical stores are getting paid for online sales too – and landlords want a slice of the action While in Downtown Los Angeles a few weeks ago, I saw a large sign – like an oasis in the desert – for Dunkin’ Donuts coffee at a subway stop. Instinct took over and […]
They may have other differences, but all the major Democratic presidential candidates agree they want to repeal the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. The GOP’s landmark tax reform made major changes to tax deductions, slashed the corporate tax rate from 35 per cent to 21 per cent, cut personal income tax rates, […]
President Trump’s schedule (EDT): 11:30 AM: Attends the White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council meeting; 12:15 PM: Daily intelligence briefing; and 4:30 PM: Meets with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. “Trump to Meet China’s Liu in a Sign Trade Talks Are Reaching Final Stages.” This morning’s Bloomberg article leads with: U.S. President Donald Trump […]
The United States has experienced over 40 years of diminished economic growth. While different data sources and analyses yield different estimates, they all confirm several decades of slow economic growth. Earlier, from the 1890s to 1972, American labor productivity according to economist Robert Gordon increased 2.3 percent annually. Since 1972 it’s averaged 1.3 percent per […]
Recent declines in US government bond yields have led to a flood of articles discussing the likelihood of a US recession over the next 12-18 months. This is understandable, first given the relatively strong correlation between yield curve inversions and US recessions in the past and second, the extraordinary length of the current US economic […]
