Ordinary valuation methods prove inaccurate when the measures they’re based on are in such a state of flux – it’s time to turn to a different methodology. In ordinary circumstances (anyone remember those halcyon days of steady state equilibrium?) the task of valuing a REIT was relatively straightforward. All that was required was a forecast […]
Considering that the present crisis is likely to burst inflated bubbles, it’s especially relevant to look at overvalued assets now. The first chart below compares the current housing market in various countries around the world. Using data from the OECD Economic Outlook, I estimated how much housing is overvalued in terms of house prices relative […]
The ‘next normal’ – the same as the last normal but has just arrived more quickly than expected. Like so many events, it’s a case of expediting existing trends not starting new ones. Retailers that have been living off low interest rate loans and haven’t changed their business models post the Amazon Age are now […]
I visited South Africa for the first time in September of 2006, thanks to Grietjie Verhoef and a great number of hosts around the country, for nearly two-and-a-half weeks. In that time I watched some South African TV in English, and when English subtitles were provided I could follow the Afrikaans soap operas, too, noting […]
‘New’ economy stocks have surged over the past five years, but unfashionable value may be about to have its moment in the sun. US internet shares have been roaring ahead, particularly in recent months. The coronavirus crisis has accelerated the shift towards online retail and smart communications, and these are the most obvious winners. It […]
Retailing is going through a structural change and asset values are tumbling as the effect of falling rents and a lack of investment appetite feeds through to the market value of the properties. The impact of the covid restrictions has been to accelerate these changes but also to disguise the positives that the new retailing […]
UK: Total value of exports to EU 27 countries in February 2020: £13,869bn As percentage of total overseas exports: 51% Percentage change since previous year: -7% Percentage change in retail sales in April 2020 compared with last year: -23% Latest percentage change for August compared with last year: 3% Percentage change in value compared with […]
Governments and central banks have had to resort to intervention on a massive scale – there will be a price to pay for the distortion caused. Consequences. It’s always about the consequences. It’s a pleasure to write something for the Property Chronicle because I can think about the long term, rather than just the short-term […]
Real estate probably isn’t one of the first industries that comes to mind when thinking about climate change – but it should be. Globally, the built environment is responsible for around 40% of energy-related carbon emissions, so getting to net zero by 2050 (as many countries have committed to do) is a considerable challenge. Despite […]
Rents are known to be volatile as demand and supply interact to create cycles. Rents are also known to vary enormously across properties based on their planning use class, location and condition. This article explores whether the rent setting context is also significant in determining the level of rent and whether this varies in weak […]
